What will happen to the euro
The collapse of the single currency, the dissolution of the euro zone are not beneficial to anyone. The importance for the world’s largest economies of the sustainability of this currency is evidenced, for example, by the fact that on May 10, on the eve of the decision to help the countries of southern Europe in the amount of more than € 100 billion, according to media reports, he conducted telephone conversations with Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy , prompting them to decisive action.
The euro is undoubtedly the most liquid and popular alternative to the US dollar, which is needed by very many to maintain the economic balance in the world. It can be expected that the EU and other countries will make new efforts to maintain a single currency, if necessary. However, the euro exchange rate fluctuations can be very significant and, importantly, they are very difficult to predict: the situation in such a liquid market as the international currency market changes literally every day, every hour, and sometimes radically.
Market professionals do not so much engage in exchange rate predictions as they make currency transactions as part of a strict risk management policy. Currency speculators behave somewhat differently, but are still not ready to accept excessive risk. It is very difficult for an ordinary person to insure themselves against fluctuations in the exchange rate, therefore we cannot recommend anyone to keep their savings in any one foreign currency. In general, it is better to keep money in the currency in which you spend it. For most Russians, this is the ruble.
If you want to protect your savings from inflation, contact the professionals of the financial market. They will offer many tools, from simple bank deposits to complex financial products. Just carefully read the terms of investment, pay attention to the reputation of the financial institution with which you deal, and remember the main principle: the higher the return, the greater the risk.
Alexey Moiseev, Managing Director – Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital Investment Company
The euro still has the potential to fall. We will see the bottom at about 1.15–1.16 dollars per euro. But it seems to me that the time is not far off when collective interventions by eurozone rivals in the global industrial goods market will begin in support of the euro, primarily from Switzerland, Japan and the United States.
In the longer term, some growth of the euro against the dollar cannot be ruled out. I think it will be connected with internal problems in America, which by this moment are likely to be in the focus of investment markets.
It is important for Russian investors to understand that playing on the dollar – euro pair is a thankless task. I am still sure that it makes sense to keep my savings in rubles. In the next 4–5 years, the dollar and the euro will come to a situation where they will devalue not in relation to each other, but in raw materials, and, accordingly, in commodity currencies. Therefore, investors who are not professional stock market players, I believe, you just need to open deposits in rubles for long periods.
Sergey Aleksashenko, Director for Macroeconomic Research, Higher School of Economics
I think that the place of the euro in the world finance system will not change. The euro will continue to be the second most important global currency. Perhaps for some time it will fluctuate depending on how successful the measures to reduce the budget deficit taken by European countries will be. But in the long run, nothing bad will happen to the euro.
Each person chooses a savings strategy. I always say: you need to store money in the currency in which you will spend it. If you plan your expenses in the eurozone, keep the money in euros. And if you run from one currency to another, you will definitely lose.
Sergey Guriev, Rector of the Russian Economic School
The euro may well fall to 1.1 dollars and even to the level of 1: 1 – despite the unprecedented measures taken by European leaders, it is still unclear whether they will be able to cope with the threat of default. In principle, the restructuring (i.e. partial default) of the Greek debt is likely to happen anyway. But there is nothing wrong with either devaluation or restructuring of the Greek debt – they will not necessarily lead to the second wave of the global crisis. However, for those who keep their savings in euros, this is not a consolation.
Yaroslav Lisovolik, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Russia
The euro will continue to depreciate against the dollar – in the eurozone has not yet reached a critical mass of measures to support the European currency. In these conditions, the share of investments in the euro should be slightly reduced: both the ruble and the dollar are currently more attractive instruments. According to our estimates, at the end of this year, the euro may fall to the level of 1.15 against the dollar. In the longer term, the euro is likely to stand the test and remain viable. This will largely depend on the measures taken by the European Union to reform the economy and the budget system.